16 May 2021 – Sunday Summary – 16/05/2021

Good Morning

This is the seventh of the Sunday Summaries that I will be sending out, once a week,

To Intelligent Betting members to let them know how things have gone and, more importantly…

How things are going.


RSR Plus

As I mentioned in a Morning News last week…

I am now producing RSR Plus ratings.

These are our normal RSR (Really Simple Ratings) that full members get (free members have access on the website to the top four rated horses in every race) but,

RSR Plus are only those races where I can rate 92% or more of all horses in the race.

Npw, these are just ratings, not selections.

However, yesterday there were 9 RSR Plus rated races;

From those 9 races there were 3 top rated winners.

Newmarket – 14:40 – Bellosa – 1st @ 2.76 BSP

Newbury – 15:35 – Palace Pier – 1st @ 1.57 BSP

Doncaster – 19:05 – Invite – 1st @ 8.50 BSP

So, whilst I wouldn’t suggest blindly backing the top rated horse in every RSR Plus rated race…

It would seem that they are a good way of narrowing the field and helping us pick winners.

Read More about Sunday Summary – 16/05/2021


28 April 2021 – Sunday Summary – 02/05/2021

Good Morning

This is the sixth of the Sunday Summaries that I will be sending out, once a week,

To Intelligent Betting members to let them know how things have gone and, more importantly…

How things are going.


New PDFs

I have added some PDF reports to the eBook section of the website.

These show Stall Bias for Flat Turf and Flat All Weather courses.

The Stall Bias is also shown on the new Expert Cards (available to full members.)


ROFT

ROFT stands for Roy’s One For Today.

Roy is in a unique position where he has access not only to all the Intelligent Betting data but also…

Focus Ratings and Advance Ratings.

And we talk every day.

With this information he is in an ideal place to pick one highly considered tip every day.

These are available to both full and free members.

These are only available on the website at this address… ROFT

You can see today’s selection and previous results there.

Now, given this level of success we may restrict these selections to full members but, at the moment they are available to all members, free or full.

Read More about Sunday Summary – 02/05/2021


27 April 2021 – Wins & Places in the Last 5 Races…

When I first started getting interested in Horse Racing Ratings…

The very first system that I came up with was based upon a horse’s number of wins and places in its last 5 races.

It became the initial basis for Focus Ratings and is the fundamental basis for our own Really Simple Ratings (available for free to logged in free or full members.)

To show you what I mean, I took a database extract of the last 5 year’s data.

Places

As you will see from the screenshot below (you may need to click on the image to see it full size)…

Where a horse has had 3 or more places in its last 5 races it has an increasingly better strike rate.

Now, this strategy isn’t blindly profitable but,

Any help that we can get in trying to identify the winner,

All helps us out.

Read More about Wins & Places in the Last 5 Races…


15 April 2021 – High Priced Winners…

On Monday I was supposed to be working on Distance Travelled but, something popped up.

Now, I know that Distance Travelled is going to be very important to us but…

This new thing could be even more important.

You see, Roy emailed me to let me know that one of our top rated RSR (Really Simple Ratings) horses had just won at an incredible price.

Windsor – 13:40 – Arboy Will won at 150/1 – 334.75 BSP

Click on the image to see it full size.

Arboy Will had a Forecast Price (my Forecast Price) at 9am of 33/1.

So, I had no choice to drop everything to investigate what happens to top rated horses which have a high Forecast Price.

Initial Analysis

I found if I concentrated on RSR top rated horses that had a Forecast Price of 6.0 to 10.0 inclusive and…

Read More about High Priced Winners…


11 April 2021 – Sunday Summary – 10/04/2021

Good Morning

This is the fifth of the Saturday Summaries that I will be sending out, once a week,

To Intelligent Betting members to let them know how things have gone and, more importantly…

How things are going.

Now, you may have noticed that The Saturday Summary has moved to Sunday.

Sunday is normally my day off and Saturday’s tend to be very busy for me.

So, it just makes sense to send out this weekly update on a Sunday.

Now, just as a heads up…

I am adding some security to the site.

In order to access any pages other than the front page you will now need to be logged in,

Either as a free or full member.

Read More about Sunday Summary – 10/04/2021


7 April 2021 – Distance Travelled (and Rain…)

Now, on last week’s Saturday Summary, I mentioned that I was working on a daily report to show Distance Travelled; the distance that a horse has had to travel to its race.

Some of you were kind enough to point out that this information is available on the Racing Post website but…

This isn’t really the information that I am after.

You see, the distance that a horse has to travel is largely dependant upon the location of it’s Trainer’s stable.

I know that that sounds obvious but,

Imagine that Black Beauty is being trained by Emma Owen (HP18 0EB) who is based at Aylesbury.

Now, Aylesbury is fairly central when you look at a map of all UK race courses.

Thus, it is possible (even likely) that Black Beauty doesn’t have to travel too far to get to a race.

Now, think about Jean McGregor (no, I’ve never heard of her either but I do know that her post code is KY13 0RW) who is based in Kinross and has the honour of being the most northern registered trainer.

She generally sends her horse to Kelso and Perth but has had entries in Ireland and English courses such as Aintree and Uttoxeter.

Read More about Distance Travelled (and Rain…)


3 April 2021 – Saturday Summary – 03/04/2021

Good Morning

This is the fourth of the Saturday Summaries that I will be sending out, once a week,

To Intelligent Betting members to let them know how things have gone and, more importantly…

How things are going.

Firstly, let’s take a quick look at how the System Selections did over March.

Click on the image to see it full size.

March was an up and down month for the system selections but, at no time was the bank at risk.

Using a £200 bank and betting to £10 level stakes we ended the month with a final bank of £398.51 (assuming a Betfair commission of 2%.)

Read More about Saturday Summary – 03/04/2021


31 March 2021 – The Kelly Criterion (and some FREE eBooks!)

The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets.

Generally, in gambling scenarios (and some investing scenarios), the Kelly strategy will do better than any other strategy in the long run.

However, personal attitude to risk can conflict with Kelly and even Kelly supporters usually choose to bet a fixed fraction of the amount recommended by Kelly in order to reduce volatility, or to protect against calculation errors.

Read More about The Kelly Criterion (and some FREE eBooks!)


27 March 2021 – Saturday Summary – 27/03/2021

Good Morning

This is the third of the Saturday Summaries that I will be sending out, once a week, to Intelligent Betting members to let them know how things have gone and, more importantly, how things are going.

We’ve had a return to form following Cheltenham.

Roy had this to say about Cheltenham…

Well that was a bad week altogether and the weekend, well I wish I had no internet or that all the bookies had closed or something so I wouldn’t have lost any profit I made with Cheltenham.

Lets hope we can back on track today if you excuse the pun…….

What did I learn from the week…..and what I will be doing next year…

Read More about Saturday Summary – 27/03/2021


24 March 2021 – Portfolio Betting (and Breaking News!)

It might seem that having a portfolio of betting strategies might seem to be a perfect answer to minimising risk but…

Are there inherent risks involved within a Portfolio Betting Strategy?

You might think that it was a sensible, grown up (and maybe a bit boring) road to riches?

But I have to tell you, there can be risks to splitting your betting funds across a number of systems.

Having said that, it’s almost certainly the right thing to do…

As long as it’s done properly?

So, I’ll start off by telling you a cautionary tale before moving on to explain how, in my humble opinion, you ought to set up a portfolio of systems to ensure long term profitability.

A Cautionary Tale…

In October of 2011 I launched a website called www.PrecisionBetting.com

It’s still going strong now.

Read More about Portfolio Betting (and Breaking News!)


20 March 2021 – Saturday Summary – 20/03/2021

Good Morning

This is the second of the Saturday Summaries that I will be sending out, once a week, to Intelligent Betting members to let them know how things have gone and, more importantly, how things are going.

We’ve had an interesting week with the System Selections.

I have a theory about festivals…

But, let me start off by letting you know that Roy and I made a decision not to use any Cheltenham selections; there are too many surprises at Cheltenham.

In retrospect that was a wise decision; we would have had some winners but they would have been at very low prices and, overall, we would have lost more than we made.

Read More about Saturday Summary – 20/03/2021


13 March 2021 – Bet The Race, Not The Horse…

facadeAs you know, I live in France.

As a result, I am only allowed bet on French horse racing via the state owned PMU (the French tote.)

You can read all about betting on horses in France here… Why a PMU ain’t your average bookies…

However, rather than just picking the one horse that I think will win…

I make a number of bets on a number of horses in the same race.

And I bet on the top rated horse in a number of different way.

How does that work?

Firstly, I have to rate the race.

I only look at Listed, Group or Graded races.

Read More about Bet The Race, Not The Horse…


13 March 2021 – Why a PMU ain’t your average bookies…

facadeAs you know, I live in France.

Living in France I often notice that it’s the little things that are different here.

And it’s not just that we call a Big Mac Cheeseburger a “Royale with Cheese.”

We do our betting on horse racing differently here.

It’s a lot more social and, of course, does tend to involve a fair amount of beer or wine.

Now, I have to warn you that, if you’re looking for a sensible, structured and well-informed introduction to Horse Racing in France then you’ve probably come to the wrong place?

What I intend to attempt to do is to explain it as it really is.

It starts at 8am.

In France (and not a lot of people know this…) it is the law that you have to go visit a bar first thing in the morning to drink a coffee (or something a little stronger), to show your neighbours that you haven’t died during the night and to buy a scratchcard, lottery ticket or, for the sophisticated, waste 1.50 euros (in France, all bets are in multiples of 1.50 euros) on a Quinté Plus.

Read More about Why a PMU ain’t your average bookies…


13 March 2021 – Saturday Summary – 2021/03/13

Good Morning

This is the first of the Saturday Summaries that I will be sending out, once a week, to Intelligent Betting members to let them know how things have gone and, more importantly, how things are going.

We’ve had a stonking week with the System Selections.

Starting with the first of our selections, last Saturday, winning at 12.0 BSP.

I’ve still got to add the BSP numbers for yesterday but…

We got 3 winners from the 7 selections bringing back 12.50 points to ISP to the 7 points staked.

Can’t complain about that.

Wednesday Wisdom

I have some articles, about my and Roy’s take on horse racing that we would like to share every Wednesday morning.

These won’t be sales emails – just a sharing of what we have learned over the years.

Read More about Saturday Summary – 2021/03/13


1 June 2020 – DIY Ratings (free eBook)…

Following my post about why class matters – you can real that here… Class Matters

I decided to design a really simple ratings system and…

Share it with you.

Now, whilst this isn’t a “back of a beer mat” system, you will be able to rate horses accurately with a cheap exercise book, a pen and a pocket calculator.

It is more accurate for non-handicap races and, over the last 2 years gave the following Strike Rate results (for non-handicap races)…

Top Rated Horse : 29.62%

Second Rated Horse : 20.89%

Third Rated Horse : 13.85%

Fourth Rated Horse : 10.53%

This means that, on the non-handicap races, just short of 75% of all winners (74.71% to be exact) come from the top 4 rated horses.

Just being able to reduce a 10 runner field to 4 likely candidates is an enormous head start for you!

Read More about DIY Ratings (free eBook)…


1 June 2020 – Introducing Roy…

Horse Racing Betting System ResultsHi, I’m Roy Connor and…

I’m joining Keith as I, like Keith, always want to have an edge over the bookies and when we spend our money we want to spend it in the right place at the right time.

My first bet was in 1974 as an 8 year old boy my Granny told me Red Rum was going to win and I put all my pocket money 5p each way and of course it won and I was a millionaire.

I won 55p back and lodged 40p in my post office account and kept 15p to spend on sweets.

Read More about Introducing Roy…


1 June 2020 – Class Matters…

When I first started Focus Ratings, one of my customers was a lovely old boy called Albert.

Sadly he is no longer with us but, he seemed to take real joy from his betting.

He only bet to 25p stakes and he mainly used to do Lucky 15s and accumulators.

He would always email me with the previous day’s results and that day’s selections.

Sometimes he did really well; on one occasion a 25p accumulator came in and he won £1680 which he promptly spent taking his son, his daughter in law and their 2 kids to a sort of center park type two week holiday. I suspect that Mrs Bert was allowed to go as well.

I still remember the sad day, sometime in 2015, when I received an email from Bert’s son asking if I could close Bert’s account; Bert wouldn’t be betting any more.

Read More about Class Matters…