On Monday I was supposed to be working on Distance Travelled but, something popped up.
Now, I know that Distance Travelled is going to be very important to us but…
This new thing could be even more important.
You see, Roy emailed me to let me know that one of our top rated RSR (Really Simple Ratings) horses had just won at an incredible price.
Windsor – 13:40 – Arboy Will won at 150/1 – 334.75 BSP
Click on the image to see it full size.
Arboy Will had a Forecast Price (my Forecast Price) at 9am of 33/1.
So, I had no choice to drop everything to investigate what happens to top rated horses which have a high Forecast Price.
Initial Analysis
I found if I concentrated on RSR top rated horses that had a Forecast Price of 6.0 to 10.0 inclusive and…
Only used those horses that had come 1st, 2nd or 3rd in their last race,
I got about 25 selections a week and got 458 points over the 5 year data period.
This is good but I knew that I could do better.
Refining the selections…
I decided to see if this strategy could do better for certain race types.
I came up with this…
By blindly back the top rated horse in the above race types (taking the race class into account), over the 5 year period that the data covers…
We got about 7 races a week.
An 18.33% strike rate.
A 57.80% profit on stakes (to BSP.)
1040.45 points profit over the 5 years which equates to 200 points a year for, basically, 1 bet a day.
And look at some of the prices we got over the last 5 years (you will need to click on the image to see all the detail.)
Conclusion…
All members of Intelligent Betting (Free or Full) have access to the Really Simple Ratings – a DIY Guide eBook which explains how you can rate the races yourself.
However, Free members may access the top four rated horses for every race online and…
Full members get this and also get PDFs emailed to them showing both the top four and all horses in every race.
If there is enough interest from Full members, I may automate any selections that arise every day.
Having said that, it is easy to work out the selections and Free members should have no problem doing that.
The rules are simple…
1). Top Rated Horse on RSR where RSR is not zero.
2). Must have a Forecast Price of 6.0 to 10.0 inclusive.
3). Must have come 1st, 2nd or 3rd in its last race.
4). Must be included in the list of race types shown above (taking Race Class into account.)
Easy!
If you have any ideas about any reports you would like me to publish, please let me know.
Members of Intelligent Betting get the following…
Really Simple Ratings (top four rated horses)
Really Simple Ratings (all horses)
Intelligent Betting System Selections
Horse Change in Class
Horse Change in Trainer
Unique Jockey & Trainer
Raiders
System Builder
Top Trainers
Top Jockeys
Top Trainer/Jockey combinations
If you want more information about Intelligent Betting, please visit Find Out More.
As always…
My kindest regards
