When I first started getting interested in Horse Racing Ratings…
The very first system that I came up with was based upon a horse’s number of wins and places in its last 5 races.
It became the initial basis for Focus Ratings and is the fundamental basis for our own Really Simple Ratings (available for free to logged in free or full members.)
To show you what I mean, I took a database extract of the last 5 year’s data.
Places
As you will see from the screenshot below (you may need to click on the image to see it full size)…
Where a horse has had 3 or more places in its last 5 races it has an increasingly better strike rate.
Now, this strategy isn’t blindly profitable but,
Any help that we can get in trying to identify the winner,
All helps us out.
Wins
As you will see from the screenshot below (you may need to click on the image to see it full size)…
Where a horse has had 3 or more wins in its last 5 races it has an increasingly better strike rate.
Interestingly enough, when a horse has won all of its previous last 5 races, it is blindly profitable.
Wins or Places
As you will see from the screenshot below (you may need to click on the image to see it full size)…
Where a horse has had 3 or more wins or places in its last 5 races it has an increasingly better strike rate.
Conclusion
Obviously, this works better for non-handicap races but, even for handicap races, it gives us an edge.
I have created a page that shows the top four horses in descending Wins or Places in the Last 5 Races order.
Intelligent Betting members (free or full) may access this page from 7:30 am every day.
The link is shown on the sidebar (in the Quick Links section),
Or, you may want to take a look at it here… Wins or Places in the Last 5 Races
Below are 3 screenshots from yesterday’s Wins or Places in the Last 5 Races (I am writing this on Tuesday 27th of April.)
I’ve chosen those races where one (and only one) horse has 5 Wins or Places in its Last 5 Races.
It’ll be interesting to see how they do.
Update: 28/04/2021
2 second places and 1 win @ 4.50 BSP seem to suggest that Wins and Places in the Last 5 Races make be an additional tool that we can use to put a shine on our betting.
And, what’s more…
It’s free to Intelligent Betting members (both free and full.)
Thank you for taking the time to read this; I hope that this is a useful tool that may help you put a shine on your betting.
Wins and Places in the Last 5 Races has been added to the (almost finished) Expert Cards that full members will receive by the end of this week.
If you have any ideas about any reports you would like me to publish, please let me know.
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